The timing of Gingrich’s impulsive remarks was not ideal for him. The public flirtation could antagonize Bob Dole, the GOP front runner and Senate leader whose help Gingrich needs in the current raucous budget showdown with Clinton. There’s the chance of a “train wreck,” and Gingrich’s political future depends on actually passing a balanced budget. Despite the risks of talking about it now–and alienating Dole–Gingrich couldn’t resist. He knows he’s unpopular with the general public, but he also has a far more devoted following among the conservatives who vote in the Republican primaries.
That’s why a Gingrich candidacy can’t be entirely dismissed. He has privately suggested that he would have a “moral imperative” to run if a Gingrich-style conservative like Phil Gramm or Lamar Alexander doesn’t soon emerge from the pack to truly challenge Dole. The speaker is emboldened by Beltway courtiers like author Arianna Huffington, who argues that none of the current candidates “is articulating the message of the revolution.” He also relishes the prospect of a campaign against Clinton, which would probably set records for verbosity but also give voters an unusually clear ideological choice. Friends say Gingrich’s wife, once viewed as an obstacle, would probably go along. (Mrs. Gingrich told friends she was quoted out of context in a Vanity Fair piece this summer in which she threatened to “undermine everything” if he ran.) The marriage is still slightly unortho-dox–Marianne spends half her time in Atlanta while Newt lives full-time in Washington-but friends insist the relationship is strong enough for a campaign.
Gingrich is convinced he could win. Although a recent poll shows an unfavorable rating of 56 percent (compared with 88 percent for Clinton), Gingrich prefers to cite other polls that have him beating Gramm or Pat Buchanan among Republican activists. The speaker could whip up a campaign organization by calling on the hundreds of local politicians he has trained or recruited over the years. He has enough money in his political-action committee to launch a campaign and could probably raise millions more quickly. “We could have 40 state finance chairmen in a week,” said one adviser.
But the arguments against running are powerful. Jack Kemp thinks Gingrich needs more time to soften his strident image, while strategist Grover Norquist believes he’s too valuable as speaker. In fact, other than Huffington, no one called on Gingrich last week to run, aides say. Many are hoping that this week’s Florida straw poll will put some declared candidate in a stronger position to challenge Dole. And they fear that without Gingrich overseeing the House, intraparty squabbling would doom the legislative agenda. If Gingrich flops in his presidential bid, the whole revolution might be discredited with him. That’s why Bill Bennett, who had urged Gingrich to run, recently changed his mind. “The work of the revolution is not a layup,” Bennett told NEWSWEEK. In that sense, Gingrich faces a dilemma. Running for president might be the best thing for him–but the worst thing for the GOP majority he so skillfully built.
