With good reason. While Obama has been quick to confess that he’d gladly offer cabinet-level positions to Democratic heavyweights Al Gore and even Bill Clinton (“there are few more talented people”), he’s never pledged to create such a gig just for them. As of today, Clinton effectively has. Her target, however, is neither the Goracle nor her husband. It’s John Edwards, the former North Carolina senator and vice-presidential candidate who put up a spirited fight for the Democratic nomination before dropping out in the wake of a Jan. 29 loss in his birth state of South Carolina. In a speech this afternoon at the Mason Temple in Memphis, where officials will pay tribute to Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. on the 40th anniversary of his assassination, Clinton is expected to announce that as president she will hire a “poverty czar” devoted solely to “ending poverty as we know it.” Coincidentally, Edwards based his 2008 presidential campaign on battling poverty, which he often called “the cause of my life.”
In case you missed it–oh, the perils of print!–that “coincidentally” was ironic. When Edwards withdrew from the race, Obama and Clinton lavished praise on their vanquished rival, and in February both “secretly” pow-wowed with him at home in Chapel Hill. “There is a lot John and I have in common,” Clinton said. “I will be a fighter, and I intend to ask John Edwards to be a part of anything I do in the White House.” At the time, pundits (including yours truly) assumed that Edwards would endorse Obama; after all, he frequently attacked Clinton for her ties to lobbyists and grouped himself with the Illinois senator as fighters against the “forces of the status quo.” But for two months, the millworker’s son has been mum. Now, with North Carolina’s potentially pivotal primary fast approaching, Clinton is desperate to cement her support, both there and elsewhere, among the white, working-class voters who fueled Edwards’s bid (and currently comprise her sturdiest firewall). And so she delivers what amounts to a job offer–with the hope (one can only assume) of an endorsement in return.
Could Clinton actually convince the coveted ex-candidate? Don’t count her out. After a long hibernation, the Edwards’s recent resurfacing–on Tuesday, Elizabeth attacked John McCain’s health care plan, and John appeared yesterday at a wireless industry showcase, where he made headlines by saying he would not again accept the veep slot–hints that they may view the current moment (before millions of blue-collar voters cast ballots in North Carolina, Indiana and Pennsylvania) as the senator’s best opportunity to influence the race. And there are signs that Edwards may not be as predisposed to Obama as originally presumed. Last week, New York magazine’s John Heilemann reported (according to an anonymous, unaffiliated Democratic strategist) that Obama came off as “glib and aloof” in his initial, post-exit conversation with Edwards and “dug himself in deeper” during his Chapel Hill sit-down, “getting into a fight with Elizabeth about health care, insisting that his plan is universal (a position she considers a crock), high-handedly criticizing Clinton’s plan (and by extension Edwards’s) for its insurance mandate.” Meanwhile, writes Heilemann, a “solicitous and respectful” Clinton “engaged Edwards in a lengthy policy discussion.” Apparently, even Elizabeth (who’s reputed to “hate [Hillary’s] guts”) was impressed–a fact that, when considered alongside those parallels on health care policy, could easily account for Edwards’s conflicted silence.
The larger question, of course, is whether an Edwards endorsement would even help Clinton in North Carolina. According to one recent poll, the answer is no. In fact, the stats from Public Policy Polling suggest that Edwards would actually hurt Clinton’s chances to win the state, with an unsettling 31 percent of Tar Heels saying they’re less likely to support an Edwards-backed Hillary and only about one-third as many (12 percent) more likely to break her way with JRE onboard. What’s more, according to Slate’s Trailhead team, “35 percent of those Clinton-Edwards sourpusses are currently Clinton supporters”–meaning that “Edwards is so toxic that one-third of Hillary’s Carolinian base would think twice before voting for her.” No wonder the guy decided it’d be more convenient to run for president than reelection.
In any case, it’s hardly certain that Edwards will take Clinton’s bait. “I really do not expect John Edwards to endorse at this point,” said former top strategist Joe Trippi in a recent Washington Post chat. “Or I should say I would be surprised if he does. But then again he could surprise me.”
Memo to Obama: we hear that Edwards has a soft spot for hamburgers, soda and golden retrievers. Your move, senator.
